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About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
According to Bank of America, valuation levels explain 80% of the market's return over a 10-year period. Bank of AmericaThere are many ways to measure valuation levels in the overall market. Hussman says it's the most accurate indicator of future market returns that he's found. AdvertisementThe Conference BoardThird, the number of US states with a rising unemployment rate is spiking, meaning that the overall unemployment rate should see further upside. BullAndBearProfits.comThe US unemployment rate is already on a slight uptrend, having climbed from 3.4% in April 2023 to 3.9% as of February.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, John Hussman's, he's, Warren Buffett, Wolfenbarger, Stocks, Woflenbarger, Cam Harvey, Claudia Sahm, Louis Fed, Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, David Rosenberg, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, America's Savita Subramanian, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent Business, Board, Treasury, Bank, America's
In today's big story, we're examining how a change in credit cards' behind-the-scenes fees impacts you… and your points . Under the settlement, merchants could charge customers more for using different cards despite being part of the same Visa or Mastercard network. AdvertisementTim Boyle/Getty Images; Jenny Chang-Rodriguez/BIThe agreement could ultimately reshape how consumers pay for things. AdvertisementPerhaps that's why one analyst told Business Insider's Alex Bitter he doesn't expect major retailers to pass swipe fees along to customers. But maybe, not unlike the fees the agreement targets, what seems small could eventually add up to something big.
Persons: , Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Insider's Grace Eliza Goodwin, Tim Boyle, David Morris, Alex Bitter, LUDOVIC MARIN, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Jeremy Grantham, Ian Shepherdson, That'll, We've, Meta, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook execs, Francis Key Scott, Hunter Biden, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Nickelodeon, Business, Mastercard, Visa, Getty, Fed, Amazon, BI Locations: Europe, LUDOVIC, Baltimore, Port, New York, London
The stock market "shows every sign of being just as crazy" as it's ever been, the GMO cofounder and long-term investment strategist told the Insightful Investor podcast in a recent conversation. AdvertisementThe veteran investor underscored that prolonged bull markets typically begin when unemployment is high, profit margins are depressed, and stock valuations are beaten down. Current conditions are the polar opposite of that, putting stocks in "double jeopardy" as both profits and valuations may plunge, Grantham said. Related storiesThe stock market has staged big rallies during boom times a couple of times before, including in 1929 and 1999, but those "ended incredibly badly," he said. Grantham also tackled the topic of de-dollarization and whether the dollar might lose its status as the world's reserve currency.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, Grantham Organizations: Service, Business, Kodak, Polaroid, greenback
Hussman FundsThese levels indicate the S&P 500 is likely to return around -5% annualized over the next 12 years, according to Hussman's math. AdvertisementBy the time the current market cycle bottoms out, the S&P 500 could well have fallen by 50%-70%, Hussman said. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 33% over the past year.
Persons: , John Hussman's, Hussman, he's, we've, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, There's, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch's, Gary Shilling Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Exchange, Federal Locations: Miami
AI chatbots can help workers brainstorm ideas, do research, write reports, build presentations, learn about new topics and identify patterns in vast troves of data. AI will ‘destroy’ some jobs, boost othersThere is also the very real risk that AI will replace some workers. AI might be able to help slow the rate of decay in the labor force,” Sangani said. “These workers will be supplemented, not replaced, by AI,” Sangani said, though he added there are also places where AI will replace workers. IMF warns AI could deepen inequalityEven if AI accelerates economic growth, there is no guarantee that everyone will benefit.
Persons: New York CNN — Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius, ” Hatzius, that’s, you’ll, , ” Satyen, ” Sangani, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: New, New York CNN, CNN, Treasury Department, IRS, Hatzius, International Monetary Fund Locations: New York, United States
Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.
Persons: , BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock
Just because the current valuation backdrop isn't as extreme as 1999-2000, we are still in a market bubble, and valuations are even more stretched today than they were at the market peaks in 2007, 1990, and 1980." Rosenberg ResearchSecond, the S&P 500 is outperforming the HYG/TLT Ratio. AdvertisementRosenberg ResearchAnd third, even tech stocks, which have been overwhelmingly supporting the S&P 500, appear to be running out of gas, Rosenberg said. The same goes for Paul Dietrich, the chief strategist at B. Riley Wealth, who says the S&P 500 could fall 49% when the current bubble pops. The bull market has thrown egg onto their faces again and again: since the October 2022 lows, the S&P 500 is up a whopping 42%.
Persons: , David Rosenberg isn't, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, he's, manias, HYG, Michael Hartnett, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Dietrich, Grantham, Carol Schleif Organizations: Service, Rosenberg Research, Business, Equity Model, Dow Jones, Dow Transports Index, Bank of America's, Bank, America, BMO Family Office
Here are six recent bubble warnings from experts this week:Advertisement1. "We are nonetheless in a market bubble." Paul Dietrich"The Stock Market Bubble Is About to Burst — Look Out!" AdvertisementGrantham also suggested the AI craze would end and bring the stock market down with it. Michael GayedGayed flagged the recent surge in gold, utility stocks, and long-term Treasury bonds as evidence of mounting market jitters in an InvestorPlace op-ed this week.
Persons: , David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Paul Dietrich, Riley Wealth, Jeremy Grantham Stocks, Grantham, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Larry Summers, Summers, Michael Gayed Gayed Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Business, Rosenberg Research, North, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Tidal Locations: North American
New York (CNN) — Is the artificial intelligence boom on Wall Street a bubble primed to burst or the real deal? That’s the question investors have wrestled with since the Magnificent Seven tech stocks began turbocharging a powerful market rally last year. “A new bubble within a bubble like this, even one limited to a handful of stocks, is totally unprecedented,” he wrote in a Monday blog post. “The long-run prospects for the broad US stock market here look as poor as almost any other time in history,” he wrote. Still, the notorious market bear sees some areas of opportunity in the stock market.
Persons: , Jeremy Grantham, , Grantham, Granthan, , Hanna Ziady, Abu, Adnoc, NewMed Energy’s, Gan, Marc Stewart, Wayne Chang, ByteDance, ” Wang Wenbin, Wang Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, ” Tech, Monster, Nvidia, Boston, Federal Reserve, ChatGPT, BP, UAE, United Arab Emirates, NewMed Energy, Energy, Starbucks, McDonald’s, KFC, CNN Wednesday Locations: New York, Grantham, Israel, Gaza, Tel Aviv, China, America, American, Beijing
Jeremy Grantham, famed investor with a history of calling bear markets, issued a bearish long-term outlook for the stock market on Tuesday, seeing the dramatic rally in artificial intelligence-related stocks as a speculative bubble. He foresaw the dot-com bubble bursting in 2000 and the 2008 bear market, and he also correctly called the bear market in 2022. The S & P 500 has rallied since late October 2023 to hit consecutive record highs, powered by megacap technology names. Dominant AI chipmaker Nvidia has rallied another 81% this year, following a near 240% advance in 2023. Grantham, now 85, believes the full effects of technological revolutions like AI often don't materialize until after an initial bubble bursts.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, Van Otterloo Organizations: Co, Nvidia Locations: Boston, Grantham, Mayo
US stocks are priced for perfection in an "imperfect and dangerous" world, Jeremy Grantham said. The top investor said AI could be bigger than the internet but the initial bubble would likely pop. AdvertisementStocks are dangerously overvalued and poised to disappoint, the AI bubble is bound to burst, and a recession appears likely, Jeremy Grantham has warned. Yet he said the rollout of ChatGPT "rudely interrupted" that process by inflating a whole new bubble around AI. "So it is likely to be with the current AI bubble," Grantham said, predicting it would "at least temporarily deflate and probably facilitate a more normal ending to the original bubble."
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham's, , Grantham, there's Organizations: Service Locations: Europe, Asia
Market bears calling for a 60% crash in the S&P 500 could soon be proven correct, Milton Berg said. The technical analyst said that stocks may be close to a final peak as speculation runs hot. Berg warned a recession appears likely based on several economic indicators that are flashing red. AdvertisementStocks might crash up to 60%, a recession seems likely, and market speculation has reached dangerous levels, a veteran technical analyst warned. AdvertisementBerg, a former advisor to elite investors like George Soros and Stanley Druckenmiller, now runs Milton Berg Advisors.
Persons: Milton Berg, Berg, , they've, John Hussman, Jeremy Grantham, who's, George Soros, Stanley Druckenmiller Organizations: Service, Milton Berg Advisors, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Netflix Locations: Milton
The Leading Economic Index fell for the 22nd consecutive month in January. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. The Leading Economic Index brings all of those together to gauge the future state of the economy across multiple dimensions, from growth and unemployment to consumer demand and homebuilding. Here's a screenshot showing the index's historic decline, from The Conference Board's latest release:AdvertisementThe Leading Economic Index has consistently declined ahead of previous recessions. There's no guarantee these four market veterans are right about the Leading Economic Index.
Persons: , Here's, joblessness, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Jeremy Grantham, Jeffrey Gundlach, Gary Shilling, There's Organizations: Service, Business, Conference Board, Treasury, Manufacturers, Institute, Supply, The Conference, Board, Rosenberg Research, North, DoubleLine, Conference Locations: North American
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In today's big story, we're looking at why side hustles are all the rage these days . Call it “overemployed light,” but working side jobs for some extra income is en vogue, especially for young people. For as much energy as they put into eliciting change, they also view their job as… just a job.
Persons: , I've, Andrew Hollenhorst, we’re, hasn’t, Gen Zer, Jackie Mitchell, Mitchell, Business Insider’s Madison Hoff, Michell isn’t, Zers, don’t, Z, Eve Upton, Clark, Keida Dervishi, Jeremy Grantham, ” Grantham, Riley Wealth's Paul Dietrich, Bryan Erickson, Craig Hastings, Isabel Fernandez Pujol, Oppenheimer, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Citi, Boston Globe, Labor, Getty, Netflix, Walmart Locations: California, TikTok, New York, London
Jeremy Grantham warned US stocks and the economy are headed for trouble. The elite investor and market historian said the AI frenzy is a bubble that's bound to burst. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "Please be advised, the rest of the world is looking with amazement at the US, the US economy, the US stock market," he said. It's worth emphasizing that the US stock market and economy have defied Grantham's warnings of crashes and recession for several years now, and might well continue to do so.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, , you've, it's Organizations: Service, Exchange, Nvidia, Microsoft Locations: Miami, Ukraine, Gaza
A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.
Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S
US stocks are heavily overvalued, a recession is coming, and AI is overhyped, Jeremy Grantham said. Stocks would have plunged another 20% or 30% in 2023 if not for the AI craze, the investor said. Grantham said he's worried about foreign wars, especially when asset prices are at record highs. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Stocks, Grantham, he's, Organizations: Service, Nasdaq Locations: Grantham, Ukraine, Japan
"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
He is the founder of Rosenberg Research and the former chief economist at Merrill Lynch — and he called the 2008 recession. Rosenberg ResearchRosenberg's model takes into account stock valuations, investor sentiment, market technicals, investor positioning, and macro fundamentals. Here's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which bundles together manufacturing data, bond and stock market performance, housing market activity, and consumer sentiment data. The economy doesn't jump from a tight labor market to layoffs," Rosenberg said in a note on Friday. Labor market and inflation data in the months ahead will tell the story for the US economy.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch —, Rosenberg, It's, , Louis, GMO's Jeremy Grantham, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Business, Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St, CNN, National Federation of Independent Businesses, Rosenberg, Societe Generale's, Federal, Labor, CPI
The GMO US Quality ETF (QLTY) launched on November 12, and as its name implies, the fund seeks to offer investors exposure to so-called quality stocks through an actively managed approach. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. "At GMO, internally we also talk about intrinsic value, which is adjusting for growth and quality," Hancock said. The aerospace business manufactures and re-services airplane engines, and the continued resurgence in global demand for travel following the pandemic bodes well for the business, Hancock said. While the timing of the ETF release is not related to Grantham's call, Hancock said quality stocks are typically more defensive in a recessionary environment.
Persons: Tom Hancock, Hancock, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham Organizations: Business, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Electric, GE
Nearly one-fourth of that was built through real estate equity. With less pressure from interest rates, they can take advantage of the current real estate market, too. They're also in the perfect position to help themselves by taking advantage of the current real estate market. However, boomers can make stronger bids on homes for sale because of their savings and real estate equity. AdvertisementMeanwhile, more than one-third of house purchases in September were all-cash, according to the real estate broker RedFin.
Persons: , They're, Jessica Lautz, RedFin, Jeremy Grantham, Grantham, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Brigade, Census Bureau, Federal, Rosenberg Research, North, Federal Reserve Locations: North American
Legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham is betting on a special caliber of stocks with his firm's first active ETF: the GMO U.S. Quality ETF. "There's a lot more interest in active ETFs than there was even a few years ago," Hancock told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. According to GMO's website, as of November 17th, the ETF's top holdings include Microsoft , UnitedHealth and Johnson & Johnson . "These are battleship companies that are going to remain relevant and important going forward." Shares of UnitedHealth are virtually flat while Johnson & Johnson is down more than 15%.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Tom Hancock, Hancock, CNBC's, Johnson Organizations: Quality, Microsoft, Johnson
Jeremy Grantham's investment firm is taking its first steps to enter the world of exchange traded funds, debuting a new offering modeled on one of Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo's crown jewel mutual funds. The GMO U.S. Quality ETF (QLTY) launched last Wednesday, marking the investment firm's first ETF. The new ETF will be managed by the same team that helms GMO Quality III mutual fund ( GQETX ). The QLTY ETF should see a similar turnover rate of around 20% to what the mutual fund has, he added. Jeremy Grantham, GMO's chief investment strategist, is not directly involved in the new ETF.
Persons: Jeremy, Van, Tom Hancock, Hancock, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Quality, helms, Morningstar, Microsoft, General Electric Locations: Grantham, Mayo
REUTERS/Nicholas Roberts/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 13 (Reuters) - GMO LLC, the asset management firm co-founded by veteran investor Jeremy Grantham, will launch its first exchange-traded fund (ETF) on Wednesday. Holdings in GMO's quality stock-focused mutual funds include companies like Microsoft (MSFT.O), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N) and Apple (AAPL.O). About 22% of all inflows into ETFs this year have been to active ETFs, which represent only 7% of total ETF assets, according to Todd Sohn, an ETF analyst at Strategas. The fund will be managed by Tom Hancock, who has been running a $7.9 billion mutual fund with a similar focus, the GMO Quality III , since 2009. The GMO launch is the second steered to market by the Goldman Sachs ETF Accelerator, which offers asset managers consulting advice on each stage of the launch process.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Nicholas Roberts, Johnson, Todd Sohn, Tom Hancock, Goldman Sachs, Hancock, Suzanne McGee, Ira Iosebashvili, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Pace University, REUTERS, Quality, Holdings, Microsoft, Apple, CFRA Research, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Oxford, New York
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